Bertie is to side with the US, Britain and Turkey rather than the Franco/German axis or the UN

Wednesday February 12, 2003 18:40

by foreign affairs

its make your mind up time for the government

according to today's Irish Times (registration Required)Bertie has decided which way he will jump. If Bertie is jumping this direction he must feel that the Franco/German axis is isolated or he would not risk their displeasure. The FG spokesperson on Questions and Answers last night Gay Mitchell seemed to be indicating that FG were moving to a more pro US stance also.

The Taoiseach and the Minister for Foreign Affairs are deliberately crafting their statements on Iraq to leave open the possibility of supporting a US war with neither UN nor EU backing, Government sources have told The Irish Times.

While Ministers still hope the transatlantic row on the issue can be resolved, comments by Mr Ahern and Mr Cowen are now being written to allow for continued support for the US, in the event of the search for international consensus failing.

"Our statements are highly nuanced", according to one well-placed source. "But our bottom line is we will do what the Americans want."

The source said the Government was particularly anxious about next Monday's emergency EU summit in Brussels called to try to resolve EU differences over Iraq. Ministers want to support the search for a common EU position, while also expressing support for the US.

"They fear they will have to make clear their attitude" in the event of the summit posing a clear choice between backing the US and supporting Franco-German demands for the weapons inspectors to be given more time, according to the source.

Friday's report by the UN weapons inspectors to the UN Security Council could be followed immediately by US calls for an early war and European calls for the inspectors to be given more time. In the case of unilateral US action or a US-led war without explicit UN or EU approval "the Government does not intend to take any position that would put it in opposition to the United States", the source said.

While still optimistic that such a stark choice can be avoided, the sources said that Ministers had resolved privately that there were no circumstances in which they could tell the Bush administration that US aircraft could no longer land at Shannon Airport for refuelling or overfly Ireland on their way to the Persian Gulf.

Other sources confirmed the Government was therefore pursuing a strategy designed to leave open the possibility of supporting a US-led attack that was opposed by many EU colleagues. This was due partly to the immensely valuable economic and political relationship Ireland has with the United States.

However, it also accorded with the personal political instincts of the Taoiseach, Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs, who all privately had an emphatically pro-American approach to the Iraq crisis, the sources said.

In Brussels NATO ambassadors yesterday failed for a second day to heal a split over sending military equipment to help Turkey to defend its border with Iraq......