What if Bush wins and comes out looking like a hero? What then?

by de boyho Sun Mar 16, 2003 19:38

Well judging by the American track record in Afghanistan I personally would be sceptical about Mr. Bushy Wushy emerging smelling of roses ...

Of course it's probably stretching it a bit to compare Irag with Afghanistan and the question is not totally off the mark.

If the USA does "win" (i.e. quickly routs Saddam), I would say that that's where their headaches really begin ... broadly speaking they have two possibilities:

(1) To place Iraq under military adminstration (like Germany after WWII) .... may be difficult without a UN mandate ....

(2) Install a puppet government and try to establish its "democratic" credentials .... the question here is how stable it is going to be ....
Even if many Iraqis would be glad to see the back of Saddam, that doesn't necessarily mean they want their country to be a US protectorate ...

And of course don't forget the Kurdish question ... another can of worms that may be difficult to keep the lid on .....

Also a quick "victory" in Iraq in the sense of a Saddam rout may still leave the field open for plenty of "Blowback" later on down the line ...
See for example:
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/16/international/middleeast/16RECR.html?ex=1048777517&ei=1&en=9c38d7f0485efd74

Interesting question but a tough one to call .......

But don't forget that whatever happens that nice Mr. Powell has promised to keep the oil money in escrow for the Iraqi people .... glad to see there's some sense of decency left in the world .......

by de boyho Sun Mar 16, 2003 19:43

Also from an overall geopolitical point of view one shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Kim Il Jong may decide that Uncle Sam's difficulty is North Korea's opportunity and try to march on Seoul (or at least throw a few nukes around) .....

US top brass admits that such an eventuality could cause "logistical problems" .....
http://www.tampatrib.com/News/MGAJFDW5BDD.html

by Donnacha - none Sun Mar 16, 2003 21:09 donnacha at sortedmagazine dot com London

Even if the Iraq war "goes well", there's the whole question of where next to consider. North Korea? Japan and South Korea are against it. Iran, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia? Try to convince anyone that it's not a crusade.

D.

by Steve Sun Mar 16, 2003 21:45

I haven't noticed Afghanistan becoming a particularly nice place under Pax Americana, and Kuwait isn't too democratic either. However, there may be a strong incentive for the corporate media to make post-Saddam Iraq look as "democratic" as possible. But more likely the media will just move on to the next "human rights war" in which US missiles are fired at Damascus, or Teheran, or Tel Aviv or Pyongyang.

PS. The mention of Tel Aviv is ironic.

by de boyho Sun Mar 16, 2003 21:52

Well when all is said and done, don't forget that in trying to stretch your grimy tentacles all over the globe there's always a wee danger that you'll succumb to some awkward side effects like imperial overstretch ..... even poor ould Adolf with his thousand year Reich that got off to such a promising start finally bit off more than he could chew ...

I may be mistaken but I do get the impression that dear old Uncle Samuel may be showing some of the symptoms ...... even if the more enthusiatic triumphalist cheerleaders don't care to admit it .....

Chalmers Johnson gives a good introduction to the topic in his Blowback - Costs and Consequences of American Empire - excerpts available on-line .....
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Blowback_CJohnson/Blowback_CJohnson.html

by de boyho Sun Mar 16, 2003 21:54

Some of the more puritanical Mossad-oriented thought-police types who monitor these postings don't have a highly developed sense of irony .......

by Jason Sun Mar 16, 2003 22:20

Could you all please stick to the question that was asked? What if Bush is proven right about Iraq?

by de boyho Sun Mar 16, 2003 22:41

Well I would say that the short answer is:
WE ARE ALL F**KED .....
But I am an optimist by nature and I see the American Empire slowly imploding over the next decade or so .... largely as a result of its own imperial overstretch .......

The Iraq business has started to wake people up especially in Europe and the US no longer enjoys such uncritical admiration or even sympathy as it did in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11 .....

In any case Bush cannot be "proven right" over Iraq ....
The US can be lucky and rout Saddam - the quick victory scenario ......

But will this prove Bush "right" ....?
Look at a more recent case of "regime change" forced by the West (NATO) - they decided to intervene against Milosevic who now sits in the Hague.
His elaborate show trial drags on and no conclusion seems in sight ....
Meanwhile the Balkans is a worse mess than ever .... and the new Western "manager" of Serbia, Mr. Djinjic, doesn't seem to have lasted very long, poor chap ...

So while I can accept the possibility that Bush "wins" in the short term a military victory in Iraq is unlikely to be conclusive in the medium to long term - the wordlwide political convulsions and resentment against the US unleashed by the Iraq crisis are not going to die down so quickly .... especially if the US shits on the UN and decides to act without a mandate ......

by Avi H. Mon Mar 17, 2003 01:03

If not when Bush and Blair win, the Iraqis welcome them as heroes and democracy is established in Iraq, how about some humility and admitting you are wrong? Outrageous suggestion, I know...

by Avi H. Mon Mar 17, 2003 01:03

If not when Bush and Blair win, the Iraqis welcome them as heroes and democracy is established in Iraq, how about some humility and admitting you are wrong? Outrageous suggestion, I know...

by Hobson Mon Mar 17, 2003 02:09

There is no way for them to win because in the eyes of the world they have already lost. Indeed, they have been losing for some time now. Certainly, they may succeed in their murder and theft, but such success will prove phyrric as it will launch a world war against the US Empire and revolution within its metropole. In the end, the only real winner will be DEATH.

by Josef Mon Mar 17, 2003 08:32

Well now, Hobson you've got it all worked out. I don't belive there will be any backlash once Baghdad is liberated.

by iosaf ( i like following a josef namesake!) Mon Mar 17, 2003 15:01

the leaders of USA UK España and Portugal
gave a carefully rehearsed press conference at sun down on the island or Terceira which lies 900 miles west of London and 2300 miles east of Washington.
It was shite. But one thing is worthy of comment.
Bush refered to his wish to avert the '·first war·' of the 21st century.

Afghanistan my friends is not considered to have been the first '·war·' of the century.

And Mr Blair guaranteed the 'territorial integrity' of Iraq.
and Mr Aznar referred to a 'palestinian state', Avi!
is not that nice?

by Hobson Mon Mar 17, 2003 19:03

You are a fool if you think for one second that the USA is going to stop with Iraq.

by de boyho Mon Mar 17, 2003 19:39

Avi old chap I'm a reasonable fellow and generally willing to admit it when I'm proven wrong .....

But in the meantime while we're waiting for that tyrant Saddam to be overthrown could you perhaps fill me in on the progress towards "democratization" that has taken place in Kuwait since it was "liberated" during the last Gulf War .......

Have they abolished chattel slavery there yet ?

And do you have any idea why the UK Foreign Office has advised all Brits to leave Kuwait ....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/2855987.stm

Looking forward to hearing your answer .....

by Steve Mon Mar 17, 2003 21:45

The USA and the West actually find democracy in the Middle East and the surrounding region rather inconvenient. For the proof of this, we need look no further than the Republic of Turkey, one of Iraq's neighbours.
Turkey is basically a military-run state with pronounced fascist tendencies in policy, not least towards ethnic and religious minorities, but it does have an elected parliament and mass anti-war sentiment in the country has been expressed through it. This resulted in the failure of a motion to let 69,000 US troops pass through Turkey to attack Iraq from the north.
Why should the Yanks want democracy in Iraq, when the rather thin democratic element in Turkey's political structure has caused them problems?